By Matthew Moorcroft

Despite it’s numerous delays, Top Gun: Maverick ends up on top thanks to an impressive showing that may hold the key to figuring out what film will be the big hit of the summer. Hint, it’s not a Marvel film this time! Let’s break it down.

1 – Top Gun: Maverick ($126.7 million)

While early estimates were around $90-100 million, early glowing reviews and the massive theater count for the film (over 4,700 theaters) raised estimates. And with $126.7 million, the film did not disappoint, bringing in a career best for Tom Cruise as he once again shows why he is the king of the movie theater. This is also one of the best showings for older audiences in quite awhile after several movies disappointed prior to this.

And it’s not surprising as to why. With crazy good word of mouth – it’s A+ Cinemascore does not lie – and critical reception through the roof, it’s now not a matter of “if” Maverick will do well, it’s a matter of “how well” as the sky is the limit for this film currently. Historically A+ films tend to have high staying power and have over 3x multipliers for opening weekends, meaning we could see Maverick make $450 million domestically.

Still, it has to contend with a lot of competition in June, particularly the highly anticipated Jurassic World Dominion, where Universal has historically ruled the domestic box office. It should, however, continue to garner return visits as the nature of the movie demands it be seen on the big screen. It’s an impressive achievement cinematically, and it also bodes well for Cruise’s other, more popular franchise Mission: Impossible next year.

2 – Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness ($15.6 million)

After three weeks at the top of the box office, Doctor Strange finally leaves the first place spot to fall to number two. With a 50% drop after losing 729 theaters, the film made another $16.4 million to add onto it’s current $370.7 million domestic total. The film, at this point, should be able to make it to $400 million, though just barely as the film’s larger then normal drops will make it difficult to hit past that.

As for worldwide, things are looking more and more dire for the goal of $1 billion for the film. While it’s at a respectable, hell even impressive $873.4 million, the film is going to have to work to get that level and with Maverick cutting off it’s legs it’s probably not going to reach there.

Still, it could end at around $950 million worldwide, which would be impressive to say the least but also be the first MCU film to end up in the zone. It would also be in line with other post-Avengers boosts, as both Thor: The Dark World and Captain America: The Winter Soldier ended up with $250-300 million boosts from film to film thanks to Avengers films.

3 – The Bob’s Burgers Movie ($12.4 million)

In third place comes the film version of the popular Bob’s Burgers show, making $12.4 million in it’s opening weekend. This is a far cry from when another Fox animated property, The Simpsons, made it’s debut to $74 million back in 2007, though one could also argue that Bob’s Burgers never had the same cultural touch that The Simpsons has had. The opening also comes at the hands of Disney under-marketing the film due to several delays because of the pandemic, letting the film linger in limbo for years as Disney-Fox struggled to figure out what to do with it.

Still though, not all is lost. $12.4 million was on the better end of predictions, and the A cinemascore is going to carry a lot of weight for non-fans who may be interested in the film. Plus the film could have the potential for being good counterprogramming for people who aren’t interested in Maverick, so decent holds in the following weeks should be expected.

If anything, this is mostly a victim of how badly Disney has been treating Fox since their acquisition. Outside of their franchises, most of the Fox fare has been dumped straight to streaming or given very little marketing, almost to phase it out. The Bob’s Burgers Movie will likely be a popular streaming affair, but it frankly should have done better then it did.

4 – Downton Abbey: A New Era ($5.8 million)

Falling 64% in it’s second weekend of release, Downton Abbey: A New Era might actually be beginning to showcase the end of an era for the once mighty series. It’s $5.8 million haul is down already from a weak opening weekend last week, and older audiences were likely brought over to Top Gun instead as that hit multiplexes in a big way.

When compared to the first film especially, it’s telling on how far the series has fallen. The original opened to an impressive $31 million and dropped around 54% in it’s second weekend, owing to good word of mouth and strong reviews. A New Era, which has similar reviews and equally good word of mouth, opened to just $16 million last week and had a much bigger drop. More then likely, this will be the last we see Downton Abbey on the big screen.

Still, it’s good to see it gaining theaters among the crowd, especially as older skewing films like it aren’t so hot at the moment money wise. Downton Abbey, in that regard, is still one of the better showings for an older aiming movie in recent years. That’s mostly the power of IP showing once again, as the name Downton Abbey carries a ton of weight with it.

5 – The Bad Guys ($4.3 million)

Coming in 5th place is the ever present The Bad Guys, dropping only 29% to make another $4.3 million to add to it’s domestic total. At $81 million domestically, the film is at a really solid spot right now and will only continue to get better as time goes on thanks to it’s solid legs. And with the only other animated film right now, Bob’s Burgers, decidedly not aimed at kids, this is still the premiere animation option for families.

Worldwide, it has hit $198.5 million, meaning it will very well hit $200 million within the week which is a massive achievement for the film in this climate. It’ll be curious to see if it can go further, but with Lightyear opening in three weeks it’s hard to see it go past that.

Can it hit $100 million domestically? Unsure at the moment, it will definitely struggle to get to $90 million so I can’t see it doing it. Nevertheless, this is a good showing for it and it will likely do big numbers on streaming when it does hit. Good work from DreamWorks.